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The drought period is defined by the amount of time it takes for the system to replenish the amount of
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lost water. In figure 3, a visualisation of the length of a drought $T_{drought}$, and $D_{max}$ is displayed:
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*Figure 4: Visualisation of 'Drought Analyser' algorithm. This figure shows how the algorithm detects the
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beginning of a drought using the $Q_{crit}$, and how the deficit and replenishment periods are defined to calculate
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the $D_{max}$.*
@@ -58,7 +58,7 @@ detected at Montjean, which is 200 km downstream of Blois. The algorithm is used
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slight differences are expected due to inflow of tributaries between Montjean and Blois. The results are
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shown in figure 5.
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*Figure 5: Droughts in the period of 1975-2022*
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After rearranging the results, based on severity, the algorithm gives the following output for the five
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After running the calibration, the optimal modelled discharge is then validated. The results of modelled
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discharge and the observed discharge in the validation period is displayed in figure 6.
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*Figure 6: Visual validation of the modelled discharge for the period 2015-2019. In this graph, it is visible
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that the modelled discharge is correctly simulated for low water flows.*
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@@ -114,15 +114,15 @@ not of interest.
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The overview of figure 7 displays the droughts for the calibration and validation period. Also, the relation
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between duration and deficit is plotted using a fitted first-degree polynomial.
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*Figure 7: The relationship between droughts duration and deficit to validate the model using a first-degree
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polynomial. The model slightly overestimates the extreme droughts for both calibration and validation.*
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It is visible that model correctly detects the droughts in calibration and validation, yet there is a slight
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overestimation of drought severity and duration, especially for the validation period. The cause of this overestimation can be linked to the smaller size of data for this period. This is also visible in the
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distribution overview in figure 8.
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*Figure 8: Distribution overview for calibration and validation. The left side of this overview displays the
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distributions for the calibration period, and the right side displays the validation period.*
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